Category Archives: investing

Are Markets Efficient?

business, investing, stocks, Uncategorized, writing, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

When investing your money you’ll hear many different forms of opinion. Experts like Dave Ramsey will tell you to invest in growth stock mutual funds, others will say that index funds are the way to go. Then there is a group of investors that says you can beat the market by buying “undervalued” stocks.

The question that arises is, is there such a thing as an undervalued stock, and if so, is there a reliable way to take advantage of this “market inefficiency”.

Your investment philosophy in stocks is largely dependent on your opinion on what’s called the Efficient Market Theory (EMT). This theory states that markets are fully efficient. In other words any given price in the markets reflects the cumulative “wisdom” of all investors actings logically on fundamental data regarding value.

Essentially the market, according to this theory, is always acting completely logically based on the current information. So at any given point the market isn’t overvalued or undervalued – it’s priced at the fair equilibrium price given the current information available.

Some practitioners and theorists have brought up concerns with the theory stating that it doesn’t accurately reflect the actual results we see in the real world. For example, in the tech “bubble” of 2000, were investors acting completely logically on the market’s information or was there inefficiency?

Ultimately you’ll have to make your own determination. At the moment there isn’t unanimous agreement by the community.

Does Active Management Have a Place in the Modern Investment Portfolio?

business, investing, Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

As index funds have become more and more popular a rising question has been, does active management still make sense for the average investor? Answer is of course not simple enough for a yes or no answer. However there are a few pros and cons we can look at for the two options. First let’s look at the advantages of passive management:

1) Relative autonomy 

Time is often saved from having passive investments. While of course there is initial research that goes into selecting the underlying ETF’s or mutual funds, once set up your strategy you will have relatively low time costs going forward.

2) Lower expenses

With passive management comes low expenses. Over the long term expenses can eat into  a large portion of your returns so paying close attention to this is crucial.

3) Lower taxes

Active management usually means less trading and less trading means both less transaction costs and less capital gains tax. Both of these add up in the long term.

Now that we’ve covered a few of the pros of passive management let’s dive into some of the pros of the alternative…

1) Potential for greater returns

By definition a passive manager can’t meaningfully beat their respective benchmark. However with active management everything changes. There is also ways a chance for outperformance. Of course the flip side of this double-edged sword is that you can underperform, which is often the case.

2) Lower volatility

Depending on the management style you are able to experience lower volatility in your investments from active management.

So which should you choose? After everything is said and done the thing that matters the most is your returns relative to the corresponding benchmark index. For example if you’re comparing a large-cap active fund verses and S&P 500 index fund.

Once you’ve selected your funds for comparison you need to determine if a) your fund has outperformed the benchmark in the past enough to cover expenses and additional active costs and b) will the fund continue to perform this way or better in the future.

If you can answer yes for both of these questions you may have a great candidate for an active portion of your portfolio.

The last option you have available is to execute the active management your self. This is a whole different story that deserves it’s own separate discussion for a different post. For the time being focus on comparing returns both pasts and potential for the future.

Getting from Guam to Indonesia – Why Investment Philosophy Matters

business, investing, stocks, Uncategorized, writing, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

There is clearly no one investment strategy that works for everyone. Some buy index funds, others pick their own stocks. Still others buy investment property and a few buy bitcoin. There are many ways to get from point A to point B in the investment world.

Recently I’ve been exploring with the idea of creating an investment model that can predict for stock market bear markets. This investment model would tell me when to buy stocks and when to sell them.

Creating a portfolio model seems daunting. There are many factors that go into developing your thoughts, strategies and relationships between variables. Without properly grounding yourself one might begin to think that there are simple or easy ways to create a model that beats the market while reducing volatility and drawdown.

Believe me, if this were the case I would be reaping the benefits of the hundreds of hours I put into my own model over the last couple months. Even now I’m beginning to realize that it might not be that easy. For those who have experienced success like Ray Dalio, I’ve always wondered what kind of indicators, and inputs they use in their models.

What are your thoughts? Is creating an investment model too difficult or should I give it a try?

Dollar-Cost Average or Lump Sum into the Market?

business, investing, stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Dollar-Cost Averaging is the process of purchasing securities over an extended period of time with the same dollar amount each time. Lump Sum investing on the other hand, involves just putting all your money into the market at once.

For example if you’re wanting to invest $100,000 should you put it all in the market all at once or over a few months? Many people might suggest putting it in over a period of time. However my suggestion is that for most cases, the opposite is actually the wisest move. Let me explain.

If you were to run with the $100,000 example, a simple dollar cost average might look like putting $5,000 in the market for 20 months. The other scenario is just putting the $100,000 in right now.

In most cases putting everything in is a better move because on average, the market goes up most of the time. So if you dollar cost average, you’d, on average, be missing out on the growth by keeping your money out of the market.

In the smaller percentage of times that the market goes down directly following investment, then dollar-cost averaging can make sense. For example if the market has been Bullish for many years with PE ratios climbing, looking at dollar-cost averaging can make sense.

Before I finish, please click here to take a look at a blog page that covers many investment topics. He has a post from early this year that covers this topic concisely: Exploring Dollar Cost Averaging Verses Other Strategies

Thanks, hope you have a great day.

6 Types of Financial Institutions and Which are Important

business, investing, Uncategorized, writing, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The following is a list of institutions that are useful to understand when dealing with money on a regular basis.

1. Conventional Bank (Retail, Commercial and Online Banks)

These are financial institutions that take up the task of performing regular financial functions for both businesses and individuals. The provide services like setting up savings and credit accounts, issuing credit cards, certificates of deposit, mortgages and taking deposits.

2. Credit Unions

These do practically the same thing as conventional banks yet are geared towards a specific group of people. For example a military credit union would be geared towards veterans or active members of the armed services.

3. Insurance Institutions

These companies provide wide rages of insurance intended to decrease the chance of loss. When you go to get car insurance this is where you go.

4. Brokerage Firms

These companies administrate the investing process. Whether someone is investing in bonds, stocks, mutual funds or ETF’s this subset of financial groups likes to help the individual or business execute their purchase of securities.

5. Investment Firms

These Banks or Companies are funded by issuing shares. These funds are mutually owned (thus the name mutual fund) and are usually invested in stocks, bonds and other securities.

6. Mortgage Firms

Generally these companies are geared towards individual mortgage seekers but there are some that specialize in commercial properties. These companies either fund or originate loans and mortgages.

Each of these institutions has their place in the financial world. See where you can recognize them in your daily or monthly financial activities.

The Purpose of Investing

gold, investing, real estate, stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The whole purpose of investing is to turn money into more money – it’s to be able to buy more things than you bought in the past. However, why not put all your money into savings? If I can lose “all” my money in the stock market, why not play it safe and keep everything in savings? There are two reasons. 1) You probably want to grow your money, not simply keep it safe. And 2) the value of money goes down over time. Wait, you might be asking, isn’t $1 always worth $1?

Yes and no. While $1 will always be the same, the amount that $1 can purchase generally goes down over time. Let’s use an example. Let’s say you have a small collection of 10 Legos. While you really love Legos, you only have these 10, so you tend to be really careful with them – you like them a lot.

One of your friends offers you an apple for one of your Legos. You refuse because you don’t want to have 9 left. However, a few months later, after Christmas and a birthday, you have received 36 more Legos. Your friend comes to you again and asks to trade one apple for two Legos. While you don’t like the idea of giving away more Legos, you don’t mind as much any more because you now have 36. So you do the deal.

What changed? Why were you willing to give more Legos up for an apple when before you wouldn’t even trade one for one? That’s because the Legos became less rare. This has to do with supply and demand. While demand for Legos stayed relatively the same, the supply increased, which decreased the value of the Legos relative to the apples.

We could get really technical with economics but for now the general principle can ring true with money as well. As the amount of money out in circulation, both physical and electronic, increases, the perceived value, and therefore the purchasing power of those dollars, decreases. In the last 100 years, inflation has gone up at about 2 to 4% per year.

The scary thing is that inflation continues even when your money isn’t growing. For example in 2008 when the whole real estate market and stock market crashed, inflation continued. Meaning, not only did stock investors lose 37% on their money, they also lost an additional 3%+ in purchasing power! Ouch!

In times of great economic panic gold often increase in price because it can act as a fear mechanism for investors when times get tough. When people in the market see inflation increasing and economic certainty decreasing, they often view gold, which has been used as money for literally thousands of years, as a safer location for their money.

The bottom line: real estate and stocks are fantastic investments for anyone looking to outpace inflation over long periods of time.

Stocks vs Real Estate – Which is Better?

business, investing, real estate, stocks, , , , , , , , , ,

Nearly all of the world’s billionaires have created wealth through business ownership. And the way most of them owned businesses was through stocks. So stocks, by default, are the vehicle by which many of the world’s wealthy have gotten there. Does this mean stocks are always the best investment over others? Not necessarily.

Is the list of richest people duplicatable? In other words, is it possible for someone starting off with nothing today, to buy and own businesses that eventually make them billionaires? The answer is clearly yes.

However there are other methods, less versatile that can provide the same type of opportunity: real estate investing. I am talking specifically about rental real estate, real estate built for the purpose of providing cashflow.

So if I’m a young person, deeply interesting in investing and committing to becoming rich, which paths should I take? Well real estate and stocks are both broad categories that are broken more specifically into numerous other sub-categories. So let’s take a brief look at your stock and real estate options:

Stocks

Stocks, which are ownership certificates in little pieces of publicly traded companies, can be broken down into various groups depending on the size of the company. They can also be categorized based on the industry or other factors. There are two general ways to get involved with stocks: direct purchase of stocks (through a brokerage account of some kind) or the purchase of shares of a mutual fund (a “basket” of stocks that is managed by a group of investment managers).

Individual investment in stocks can be a fantastic way to build wealth if you meet the following requirements: 1) Able to control your emotions in favor of logic, 2) time commitment to researching and analyzing your choices and 3) patience.

The other stock option, mutual funds, is perhaps the least involved option. I recommend this path for most people who aren’t wanting to spend a lot of time on their investments. One thing to be aware of in this type of investment is both the type of mutual fund (large-cap vs small-cap) and the fees that the mutual fund charges.

Real Estate:

Real estate is a vast field with both commercial and residential properties to choose from. When considering an investment path you need to pick somewhere and stay consistent. Building your knowledge up in a specific area of real estate can go a long way in mitigating risk, which should always be a big concern.

The best way to create wealth with real estate is by buying rental properties. You can either buy single-family homes, multi-unit properties (2, 3 and 4 units) or commercial apartments (5+ units). You should only invest in real estate if you have both time, interest and are capable of networking and management.

Conclusion:

Stocks can be good for people who have less time and more analytical skills. Real estate also requires analytical skills, but you also have to have interest and time to make money. The best choice for you depends on these factors.