Category Archives: stocks

The Stock Market is Falling: What Should I Do?

The last few weeks started as a few percent decline in the market. As gurus and commentators covered it, they viewed the decline as a temporary, week-long or even a few day-long event. However a few weeks later here we are, still waiting and wondering when the market will rebound.

As a long-term investor this is exciting for me. Not only have stock declined roughly –% from their high, they continue to fall to increasingly discounted prices. Everything might not be a bargain at this point, but after falling about 9% the market is a lot closer to reasonable pricing than it was a month or two ago.

So when prices drop like this, what should an investor do?  They should do what the best investors do – find good companies and buy them at favorable prices. This might mean waiting and watching for a good company to drop below your perceived value it.

But for index and active mutual fund investors slowing dollar-cost-averaging into the market may make the most sense. Understand that the market will come back. It’s just a matter of how quickly it does.

Fundamental Vs Technical Analysis

When it comes to picking specific stocks for investment, there are two ways to analyze them. The first is Fundamental Analysis.

Fundamental analysis the process of examining a company’s “fundamentals”. This means you look into their balance sheet, their income statement and the statement of cashflows. You look at the concrete facts about the company.

Ask questions like, is this business profitable? Do the facts suggest it will increase profitability in the next few years?

What kinds of debts (short-term and long-term) does this business have? Will it be able to pay them?

What weaknesses are there to this business and its market that could challenge its position? What are its strengths?

The second type of analysis is Technical Analysis. This involves projecting the stock price based on the trends. You look at the 50 day moving average, and even the 200-moving average. This is more of a charts and trends-based analytical process.

Overall, for long-term investors, fundamental analysis is the way to go. Not only does Fundamental analysis involve more logical and foundational decision-making, it is also the strategy used by some of the best investors in the world like Warren Buffet. Overall, if you’ll wondering which strategy is best, consider your purpose for investing.

Active Mutual Funds Vs Index Funds: Which is Better?

Mutual Funds

A mutual fund is basically an amount of money that is “mutually funded” by a large amount of people. This money is managed by fund managers who require a percentage fee for their labor. The managers invest in securities and as the value of the investments rise or fall, so the equity of the shareholders in the fund rise and fall.

So if you purchased one $1 share of a $100 fund then you own 1% of the overall value of the fund. If the management’s investments of the fund raise the value to $110 then you just made 10% and your share is now worth $1.10.

This is a very simple overview. Clearly the details are much more complex. For example the management fees, taxes and dividends change the return dynamic. But in terms of understanding the basics of mutuals funds, this does the job.

1. Active Mutual Funds

An active mutual fund is one in which the manger(s) work to select the best security investments they think will produce the best returns. They usually charge a higher management fee because of the perceived value and expertise they provide.

2. Index Funds

The alternative is to have a fund set up in a way that involves very little research and work on the part of the management. “But why wouldn’t you want to take of advantage of the manager’s expertise?” you might ask. The answer comes down to two variables: Cost and performance.

Not only do active mangers usually charge higher fees (cost) but they often don’t actually invest in a way that outperforms the market(performance). So the alternative that involves lower cost is called “index investing”.

An index is essentially a set of stocks that meet certain requirements or have certain common characteristics to one another. For example the most popular index, the Standard and Poor’s 500. It’s an index that takes the 500 largest US stocks on the market.

What this means for index investing is that an S&P 500 Index Fund would be managed in a way to match the S&P 500 index. In other words, the mangers would simply try to buy and sell stocks to keep their investments in line with the 500 largest companies on the market. That’s how they can keep their management fees so low – they don’t have a ton of research to do.

Index Options

But there are other indices. S&P 500 is the most popular but there are others like the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which is 30 massive companies weighted according to price. The DJIA is the oldest index.

The following are some others that you might like to consider:

The Nasdaq Composite Index

The Nasdaq is actually a stock exchange that predominantly trades technology companies. The index seeks to perform according to the stocks on the exchange.

The Russell 2000

Of the 3000 largest companies in the Russell 3000 (another index), the Russell trades the bottom 2000. Thus, this fund trades mostly smaller to middle size companies.

There are many, many more you can look up on your own. The bottom line is that for most cases index funds provide the better choice.

Stock Market Sectors: Is This a Wise Investment Move?

There are some investment advisors who scare away from the idea of sector investing. However, with adequate research, one might find that certain areas of the overall market tend to outperform others in various economic seasons. But is the risk of overexposing ones’ self to sectors worth it?

Before I answer this question I’d like to list the 11 major stock sectors:

1. Industrials

2. Real Estate

3. Consumer Discretionary

4. Consumer Staples

5. Healthcare

6. Financials

7. Tech/IT

8. Telecommunication

9. Utilities

10. Materials

11. Energy

Before someone considers investing in specific sectors, they must recognize that over time there are periods and seasons in which one sector performs better than others. Some of the worst sectors to own in bear markets is Technology stocks like Google, FaceBook, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft. However as times get better, this sector usually outperforms the rest of the market.

My recommendation is to not invest in specific sectors and sector funds unless you are comfortable risking a significant portion of your portfolio. If you do decide to invest in sectors, pick one that is both posed to do well over the next few months as well as the next decade. You want both the fundamental and technical analysis working in your favor. Overall, stock sectors can be a very lucrative strategy for investing.

Different Stock Investing Strategies

I am going to briefly cover the top most widely used “investment” strategies for stocks. Technically not all of these methods are investing because a few of them involve short term trading.

1. Stock Index Mutual Funds

There are many types of indexes. Indexes are essentially a predetermined basket of stocks that are formulated using a set of rules. For example the most widely used index, the S&P 500, is an index that incorporates the 500 largest companies in the US and weighs them in the index accordingly. There are other indexes such as small-cap indexes or tech stock indexes. The bottom line is that with an index you are purchasing a tiny portion of a large basket of US stocks that is going to reflect your sector of choice.

2. Actively Managed Mutual Funds

Actively managed indexed funds are very similar to indexes except for 1 key difference: They aren’t bound by a predetermined set of guidelines. For example an active mutual fund might have a focus on large-cap stocks or international stocks, yet there aren’t any rules on how much of each of these have to be purchased. This is different from an index where the predetermined weight of each stock is set in stone. Out of this difference comes an increase in management fees because of the funds active, and therefore more costly management structure.

3. Value Investing

This is the method used by the smartest and most successful investors (in my opinion). Warren Buffet is the most famous example of this. Value investing involves determining a company’s value (regardless of current perceived value) by looking at a balance sheet and income statements using fundamental analysis. As the investor sees a price drop well below it’s determined real value the value investor can seize up good deals and hold on for the long-term.

4. Day Trading

This is a common strategy by short-term investors who use primarily technical analysis (looking at charts and trends) to make “investing” decisions about which stocks to buy and then sell quickly for a profit. The risky thing about this is that if you accidentally buy a stock or ETF that suddenly drops in price, you could get stuck with a plummeting investment that was truly overvalued.

5. Random Strategy

This strategy is specifically for people who don’t know what they’re doing and don’t even pretend to try to act like it. They randomly purchase stocks that “sound cool” and then hope that they rise in price. By far this is the stupidest strategy just behind day trading. You can lose your shirt much easier with mindless/random investing or day trading than you can with the other strategies I outlined above.

Conclusion:

Whatever you do, please don’t choose route 5, and preferably strategy 4 as well. Not only is day trading risky and the fees expensive, it has also be statistically been proven to outperform traditional investing methods over the long-term.

When Should You Sell Stocks?

The old saying, “buy low and sell high” is a very noble goal to have as an equity investor. And during times of extreme prosperity, when the stock market is regularly reaching all time highs, it can seem easy to turn a little into a lot. However, most of the time, history has shown, investors get the timing wrong.

I made this mistake as well in my own life. When I was 16 or 17 I got $100 for Christmas along with a brokerage account, in my parents name, that I was allowed to trade with. After adding $10 of my own I opened it with $110 of fresh money to invest. I was excited!

My first trade, which wasn’t really researched, was the Walt Disney Company. The first month or so it went up. I became so elated as it continued to climb that after I took a “brief” fall I panicked. I told myself, “You’ve got to think long-term.”

So I didn’t sell. As the stock continued to fall gradually I continued to tell myself it would rebound eventually. At some point I caved and sold the stock, regrettably at a $5 loss. After this I purchased a Vanguard real estate ETF along with two shares of GE, which had recently been plummeting.

I have held onto these stocks for a while now and they have finally rebounded back to around $110 in value where I started. The real bummer though, is what the Disney stock has been doing. After I sold, it dropped a little more and then has continued to rise to around $117 per share.

If I had just held on I’d be $7 richer!

This silly little example shows that investing isn’t a day-by-day or even a month-by-month game. It’s a long-term play. When you buy a stock you’ve got to be willing for it to go down temporarily and eventually rebound. The important thing is making sure the fundamentals of the business are strong and then buying at a discounted price.

So, when exactly should you sell a stock?

You should sell when the stock is overpriced. And when is that? When the value you place on the overall business is significantly lower than the value the market is placing on it. That’s when you should run.